A consolidated operational assessment tracking regional conflict dynamics, structural atrocities, and political shifts from 2022 through mid-2026.
Territorial Control
25 of 28 regional townships
Besieged in 3 core areas
Verified Documentation
Compiled from verified field updates, satellite imagery analysis, and reports by major human rights bodies:
Executive Summary
As of mid-2026, Arakan State is the epicenter of a compounding humanitarian crisis. Following the collapse of a regional ceasefire in late 2023, the Arakan Army (AA) rapidly expanded its territory, establishing a parallel proto-state across most of the region. Caught between relentless airstrikes from the military junta (SAC) and the systematic violence of the advancing AA, the Rohingya civilian population faces extreme persecution, mass displacement, and deliberate massacres.
Persecution of the Rohingya has escalated dramatically over the last three years. The collapse of the junta’s ground forces in Arakan hasn’t brought relief. Instead, it exposed the Rohingya to a new wave of atrocities from both the junta and the advancing AA forces.
An informal ceasefire between the junta and the AA collapsed. This turned Arakan back into an active warzone and immediately cut off vital humanitarian aid routes.
The junta rolled out a forced conscription policy, actively kidnapping and press-ganging Rohingya men and boys into military service to fight the AA, which deliberately stoked inter-communal tensions.
AA fighters deliberately opened fire on hundreds of unarmed Rohingya civilians fleeing clashes in Buthidaung Township. Over 170 civilians were killed. Satellite imagery and forensic evidence later confirmed that the AA burned the entire village of Hoyyar Siri to the ground.
As thousands of Rohingya gathered on the banks of the Naf River attempting to escape to Bangladesh, AA forces launched coordinated drone strikes and mortar attacks directly into the crowds. Over 100 civilians died, most of them women and children.
The AA completely sealed off destroyed Rohingya villages, labeling them “red zones,” and forced survivors into makeshift internment camps like the ones near Keya Zinga Para.
Rejection of Arakan Army Denials
The Arakan Army and its political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA), repeatedly issue official statements denying involvement in war crimes, claiming their fighters only target military personnel and adhere to the Geneva Conventions. These claims are demonstrably false and must be unequivocally rejected.
It’s now definitively proven through extensive investigations by international human rights organizations—supported by survivor testimonies, forensic skull analyses, and satellite imagery—that the AA has systematically executed unarmed Rohingya civilians, engaged in widespread arson, committed sexual violence, and utilized torture, including electric shocks, against detainees.
Conditions remain dire for the 1.2 million Rohingya refugees living in Cox’s Bazar and Bhasan Char in Bangladesh. The 33 camps are severely overcrowded and highly vulnerable to climate hazards like cyclones and flooding. Inside Arakan, the junta has maintained a strict blockade on humanitarian aid since late 2023. The UN’s 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan notes that the operational space for aid agencies has severely narrowed, leaving hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) completely without access to food or medical care.
In January 2026, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) started substantive hearings on the merits of the genocide case brought by Gambia against Myanmar for the 2017 atrocities. On another legal front, the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor requested an arrest warrant for junta leader Min Aung Hlaing back in November 2024. Human rights organizations are actively pushing the ICC to expand its current investigations to include the AA’s 2024 massacres in Buthidaung and Maungdaw.
The political landscape of Arakan has fundamentally shifted. The AA is no longer just an insurgent group; they’re operating as the de facto governing authority in the region.
The AA now controls roughly 89% of the region, covering 14 of the 17 townships in Arakan, plus Paletwa in neighboring Chin State. They have also seized the entire border with Bangladesh.
The military junta is effectively besieged and isolated in just three locations: the state capital of Sittwe, the island township of Manaung, and the strategic deep-sea port area of Kyaukphyu. The AA has deliberately held back from storming Sittwe and Kyaukphyu due to tactical complexities.
While Myanmar held stage-managed, sham elections in December 2025 and January 2026—resulting in junta chief Min Aung Hlaing assuming the presidency in April 2026—the military has lost significant ground nationwide. Unable to defeat the AA in ground combat, the junta relies heavily on collective punishment. Junta forces launch daily airstrikes and cluster bomb attacks targeting civilian infrastructure, ULA administrative centers, and medical facilities, such as the complete destruction of the Mrauk-U General Hospital in December 2025.
The Rohingya are trapped in the crossfire of a war where neither side views them as citizens. Under the junta, they face intense aerial bombardment and are regularly forced to act as human shields. Under the AA/ULA administration, they’re subjected to a restrictive “Tokkenza” (travel pass) system, heavy financial extortion, arbitrary detention, forced relocations, pervasive sexual harassment, and forced involvement in drug trafficking operations.
The prospect of safe, voluntary, and dignified repatriation for Rohingya refugees currently stands at zero. While the Government of Bangladesh continuously advocates at the UN for a swift return, formal repatriation agreements are completely stalled. The reality on the ground makes returning physically impossible and legally hazardous. The April 2025 BIMSTEC announcement stating that 180,000 Rohingya were “eligible” for return has been widely criticized by observers as a hollow, meaningless gesture.
The breakdown of conditions reveals six fundamental barriers preventing any realistic return:
The fundamental root of the crisis—statelessness—remains completely unresolved. The 1982 Citizenship Law that stripped the Rohingya of their rights hasn’t been repealed by central authorities. Furthermore, the newly dominant ULA/AA explicitly reproduces this identity-based exclusion. The ULA refuses to officially recognize the Rohingya as an indigenous ethnic group of Arakan, deliberately using terminology that denies their heritage. Without a framework that guarantees citizenship, freedom of movement, and basic physical security, the Rohingya remain a completely stateless people caught in a highly volatile conflict zone.
This overview synthesises publicly reported information from international rights organisations and UN bodies. It is a summary for orientation; figures and attributions in active conflict remain subject to revision as verification continues. See ASF’s analysis library for detailed, sourced assessments.
