Independent conflict research · Myanmar's western frontier
Independent, evidence-led analysis of the Arakan conflict and its regional fallout — verified assessments for the policymakers, diplomats, and researchers who need ground truth ahead of decisions.
Situation snapshot
July 27, 2026
Figures compiled from multi-source field reporting and OSINT verification
Selected analysis
The rise of the Arakan Army’s narco-terror economy is no longer a Myanmar-only problem it is now reshaping
Latest analysis
The Strategic Reframing of Perpetrators as Partners Thomas Kean of the International
The Arakan Army is being celebrated in Western capitals as Myanmar’s most
The Arakan Army, Rohingya Trafficking and Demographic Control in Arakan State The
The terrorist Arakan Army/United League of Arakan (AA/ULA) is reportedly using infrastructure
The May 18, 2026 Human Rights Watch (HRW) report “‘Skeletons and Skulls
A paper prepared by Dr. Ronald Lee in mid-April 2026 was reviewed
The Global Arakan Network’s recent article, “A Dangerous Misreading of Arakan Politics,”
The Arakan Strategic Forum (ASF) welcomes the visit of H.E. Hakan Fidan,
The Strategic Reframing of Perpetrators as Partners Thomas Kean of the International
The May 18, 2026 Human Rights Watch (HRW) report “‘Skeletons and Skulls
The Global Arakan Network’s recent article, “A Dangerous Misreading of Arakan Politics,”
Rohingya residents in Buthidaung Township, Arakan (Rakhine) are facing strict travel restrictions
A major narcotics network spanning Sagaing, Mandalay, and Pyay was disrupted after
As of 4 May 2026, the Arakan Army (AA) is enforcing compulsory
Six months after the Arakan Strategic Forum (ASF) published its searing October
On 12 April 2026, Monir Ahmed (45), son of Soyed Kasim, from
The terrorist Arakan Army/United League of Arakan (AA/ULA) is reportedly using infrastructure
The May 18, 2026 Human Rights Watch (HRW) report “‘Skeletons and Skulls
A paper prepared by Dr. Ronald Lee in mid-April 2026 was reviewed
The Global Arakan Network’s recent article, “A Dangerous Misreading of Arakan Politics,”
On 24 May 2026, a brutal landmine explosion near the Ghumdhum border
On 19 April 2026, two Rohingya families were forced to pay money
The Arakan Army, Rohingya Trafficking and Demographic Control in Arakan State The
On 24 May 2026, a brutal landmine explosion near the Ghumdhum border
On May 18, 2026, Human Rights Watch published a damning investigative report
Rohingya residents in Buthidaung Township, Arakan (Rakhine) are facing strict travel restrictions
On 12 April 2026, Monir Ahmed (45), son of Soyed Kasim, from
On 24 May 2026, a brutal landmine explosion near the Ghumdhum border
A paper prepared by Dr. Ronald Lee in mid-April 2026 was reviewed
The Arakan Strategic Forum (ASF) welcomes the visit of H.E. Hakan Fidan,
On May 18, 2026, Human Rights Watch published a damning investigative report
On 19 April 2026, two Rohingya families were forced to pay money
As of mid-2026, Arakan State is the epicenter of a severe Rohingya humanitarian crisis, with civilians trapped between junta airstrikes and Arakan Army violence.
Today's violence is the latest chapter in a decades-long campaign that stripped the Rohingya of citizenship and belonging. From the 1982 Citizenship Law to the mass expulsions of 1978 and 1991, the communal violence of 2012, and the 2017 clearance operations that the UN said bore "the hallmarks of genocide," the pattern is one of escalating erasure.
Citizenship Law renders the Rohingya stateless.
Communal violence; tens of thousands confined to camps.
Clearance operations drive 700,000+ into Bangladesh.
Our research
We translate complex realities into verified, intelligence-grade insight — combining open-source intelligence, on-the-ground reporting, and data-driven analysis.
Conflict & security dynamics
Mapping armed actors, territorial changes, and operational trends across Arakan and its borderlands.
Transnational crime & narcotics
Tracking production routes, trafficking networks, and the financial systems sustaining illicit economies.
Humanitarian impact & displacement
Documenting civilian harm, forced migration, and the humanitarian fallout of ongoing conflict.
Information warfare & propaganda
Analyzing digital narratives, state-sponsored disinformation, and influence operations shaping perception.
Policy & regional stability
Translating field intelligence into actionable recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders.
Who we are
ASF brings together field researchers, data analysts, and policy observers to produce verified, intelligence-grade assessments that help governments, media, and humanitarian organizations make informed decisions. We expose propaganda from all sides, document atrocities with evidence, and provide the factual clarity that decision-makers urgently need.
